An Almanack

Engineering is the most sought after career among the Indian middle class, replacing Civil Service in the British days. In addition to several elite schools like the IITs, India has several hundred Engineering colleges that churn out techies by the thousands. There is no shortage of talented and well-prepared students for these professional schools, despite the poor conditions in most of India’s high schools. The secret is that students, and parents, spend a fortune on private tuition. There is a whole cottage industry preparing students for the entrance exams.

There is a negative side to this. Sciences and humanities suffer as talent is sucked away into the professions. Still, overall, the system has benefitted society: the Indian economic boom is powered by the graduates of these many regional engineering colleges and to a lesser extent, the IITs.

Pakistan on the other hand has failed in its many attempts to revive its educational system. Not having outlets for their energies, young men-and some women- turn to militant religious organizations for inspiration and guidance. The havoc they cause is a problem for India and the rest of the world, but it is threatening the very existence of Pakistan. (more…)

For someone living within American culture, India’s response to the Mumbai attacks looks either suicidally passive or diabolically clever. Despite daily statements that make vague threats (”all options are still open”) the most direct action India has taken so far is to cancel a cricket match with Pakistan. Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister even sent the President of Pakistan a New Year’s greeting card.

The card carries the picture of a white dove with flowers in its beak

Zardari must have said ” Dammit! Why didn’t I think of that card thing?”.

What is going on here? Why coddle people who are still denying that one of the most vicious attacks on innocent civilians was launched from Pakistan?
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India and Israel have both been victims of terrorist attacks in recent months. Their response could not be more different. Israel has opted for direct action, in a bold and widely condemned attack on Gaza, from where Hamas launched rockets to attack Israeli civilians. India has taken a judicial approach, collecting evidence against the Mumbai attackers and pressing Pakistan to extradite the terrorist commanders who directed the operation from within its territory. Which strategy will work in the long term?

I will not go into the root causes of either conflict. Instead, I will try to explain why each Nation is acting the way it is, and examine whether it is rational for them to act as they do. (more…)

Ever since the Salman Rushdie incident, the word Fatwa has had a negative connotation. Perhaps no word has been as misunderstood, with the exceptions of jihad and madrassa.

It turns out that a fatwa is a kind of judicial opinion from an islamic religious authority. In nations that have adopted the Shariah as part of the legal system, a fatwa could have the force of law. But mostly, it is guidance for the faithful. Because Islam does not have a hierarchy like the Catholic Church, each religious authority has to rely on its own reputation as the force behind its fatewa.

Outside of the Middle East, the most respected school of Islamic studies is Darul Uloom, located at Deoband near Delhi in India. It was founded in 1866 after the defeat of Indian forces by the British. The school played an important role in the Freedom Struggle of India. It opposed the creation of Pakistan, and asks its followers to participate peacefully in Indian democracy. Its influence extends well outside of India. The mainstream of Islam in Pakistan is historically of the Deoband school. After Partition, certain logistical difficulties clearly exist and Saudi Arabia is playing an increasing role in providing support to the madrassas. (more…)

Hoax phone calls used to be funny. As a teenager, Steve Wozniak, the inventor of the Apple computer, figured out the Bell System technical protocols- he and Steve Jobs had found the manual at the SLAC Library. Woz used this knowledge to call the Pope, pretending to be Henry Kissinger. His fake German accent was good enough to get the Holy Father out of bed. But before he took the phone, an aide figured out that it was some California teenager pulling a prank. (more…)

The US National Intelligence Director has taken the unusual step of placing blame in public: AP

The same group that carried out last week’s attack is believed to be behind the 2006 Mumbai train bombings that killed more than 200, National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell said Tuesday during a speech at Harvard University.

McConnell did not identify the group by name. However, the Indian government has attributed the 2006 attack to Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani terrorist group based in Kashmir, and the Students Islamic Movement of India.

Hard to know how to evaluate this information. The Bush Administration just isn’t that credible after the epic failure of intelligence on WMD in Iraq. They could be right this time: the boy who cried wolf was right one time too. Whether or not the LeT are behind this particular attack, it has already been designated a terrorist organization based on its previous record.

At first one may think that the LeT is a secretive organization, operating out of some cave in the mountains. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Although it is banned, the LeT actually operates freely in Pakistan: it just changed its name. It runs schools, hospitals and provides social services. Its headquarters is in Muridke: a suburb of Lahore, Pakistan’s second largest city.They even have a website in English. and in Urdu ( the national language of Pakistan.) (more…)

Anger in India is currently focused on its own Government. The mindless bloodbath that followed some previous attacks has not happened. What we see instead is a quieter rage, one that can be channeled to something constructive. For, rage has its uses too.

Every one, the US Sec State included, seems to be counseling the Indian Government against an overreaction. Certainly, no one wants a war between two Nuclear-Armed adversaries.

But what of the dangers of under-reaction? What will be the consequence to India and to the world if they are allowed to get away with it?

There seems to be consensus that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is behind this attack: (more…)

President-elect Barack Obama is about to announce his foreign policy team.No matter who is on it, Obama promises that the policy will be set by him. Nowhere is his intellect more needed than on policy towards Pakistan.

On 1 Aug 2007 Obama said:

The first step must be getting off the wrong battlefield in Iraq, and taking the fight to the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

He said he would make the hundreds of millions of dollars in US military aid to Pakistan conditional on the following actions by the Pakistani government:

1. substantial progress in closing down terrorist training camps
2. evict foreign fighters
3. prevent the Taleban from using Pakistan as staging area for attacks in Afghanistan

I have not heard a clearer analysis yet. There is more: (more…)

So what do we know so far about what is going on in Mumbai? (more…)

Daniel Markey was Policy planning staff member, South and Central Asia portfolio, U.S. Department of State (2003-2007). He is now a senior fellow for South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. It is interesting to listen to the diissolution of Musharraf through the words of Dr. Markey:

Mar 3 2008

Musharraf is a diminished asset. He is exceedingly unpopular. No one disagrees with that. The time has come to really get on sort of the right side of history, essentially for the United States to jump into the future and work with more popular forces in Pakistan

Feb 23 2008

Musharraf is obviously a poison pill. He is fading out.

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