The Old Country
All the talk in the US is about National Health Care. A colleague, who always has his finger in the wind, whispers that growth area in medical research is Alzheimer’s disease. How can we, as a Physics Department, cash in on that? The signs that old people (we like to call ourselves middle aged, but that presumes we will live to be a 100: a frightening thought) dominate the national conversation are everywhere. Count how many Viagra ads come on during a political talk show. And compare to the number of birth control ads.
Not like in the sixties when the US was a young country. “Don’t trust anyone over thirty”, said John Lennon. He was right. Old men like to send young people into war; unless enough say “hell no we won’t go”. Even after the election of Obama, the US still mired in two wars for reasons that sound a lot like the domino theory of old. Yet, where are the protests?
What happened? Just part of a global demographic tend. As people become affluent, they have fewer children. Also, people who find satisfaction in work do not look to children as their only legacy: proteges and students fill that need to some extent. So, an aging population is a sign of success and wealth. If the system can be sustained.
The truth is, it cannot be sustained. Despite what most Americans believe, Social Security is not a savings account and Medicare is not health insurance. They are social welfare programs, where taxes levied on the young and often poor, support the old and comparatively affluent.That no politician dare breath a word against this entrenched system is testament to the power of the geriatric lobby. Old people have the time to be activists, and have knowledge of the political system. Money that could go to fund colleges or bridges go towards supplementing retirement income. The system works because so far, there enough young people to pay for the old. Despite declining birth rate and death rates, immigration brings in many young people who make up the difference.
Western Europeans and Japanese are not as fortunate. Resistance to immigration makes them slaves to the demographic clock that is ticking away relentlessly. An extreme is Italy, where there are a mere 1.23 births per woman, well below the equilibrium value. There are entire towns where not a single person under thirty lives. Being part of the EU, Italians can for now live off the wealth created elsewhere (mainly Germany). Every European nation will feel the pinch as they start to loose competition against young vigorous economies of the East. Their economies will continue to stagnate, like Japan’s has been for a decade.
A case in point are the dismal ratings that European Universities (except British ones) get in global surveys. Language barriers make it different for continental European universities to admit foreign students. European high schools produce competent students, but not in the numbers needed to sustain a modern economy.
So who has the most young people? The Middle East and Africa. This scares the bejeesus out of many Western writers on demographics (The redundantly named Mark Steyn for example.). They foresee wars and famine. May be they are right, although much of the analysis seems tainted by Islamophobia. As long as the people are not given a good education and the political system is dysfunctional, all that youthful energy might get spent on violence. But Iran is a counterexample. Most Iranians alive today are born after the Islamic revolution. Although the Mullahs are in charge for now, the Iranian political and educational systems are functional enough to produce a generation of productive young people who might displace them. This is not necessarily good news for the US and Europe: it is unlikely that they will allow a return to autocracy by a puppet regime. Iran could develop in the direction of Turkey, with a democratic but firmly Islamic government. This could be a model for the rest of the Middle East. But it does not look like anyone is listening.
China could regret its decision to curtail its population by draconian measures. In another generation, there just won’t be enough people to support the old. By then they hope to be wealthy enough that the savings accumulated can see them through. For now, China is reaping the benefits of educating a larger percentage of young people. No one can compete with them in manufacturing. The largest transfer of wealth after the colonial age is under way. That giant sucking sound you hear is your dollars being sent to China by way of Walmart. It is no coincidence that Walmart cannot afford to pay for health insurance for its workers.
India is poised well. The median age is 26. Several new world-class universities are opening up. Even as the global economy is mired in a recession, the Indian economy is growing at 6%: in boom times it grows at 9%. New highways and buildings are going up everywhere. The most coveted field among students, after medicine, is no longer computers but civil engineering. In the last election, the BJP made the mistake of putting forward two aging ideologues as their champions. The Congress won in part by projecting Rahul Gandhi and other next generation leaders.
In the last few years, the Indian Cricket market has grown to the point where Cricket is now an Indian game. Although British and Australians play it also, their money is made by broadcasting the game in India also. There were long lines to see the Malayalam movie “Rithu” (Seasons) about the new generation of software techies in Kerala. The movie I originally went to see, an “art” movie by a Director I remember from my days (Adoor) was reduced to just one show a day. The times are changing.
In the month that I just spent in India, no one mentioned Alzheimer’s disease even once.There is no Social Security and no Medicare: people rely on their own children to look after them in their old age.
It is really quite ironic. The youth obsessed American culture is now dominated by old people. The ancient cultures of India and China are instead, driven by the young. Majority rules.
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